Kurzweil: Mainstream Alternative Energy Within Years, Will Challenge Oil

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We are just a few years away from the emergence of mainstream alternative energy- like solar power- that will be cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil happens to think so, and if his history of technological forecasting is any guide, we should probably believe him.

After my previous article challenged the doomsday projections coming from the man-made global warming movement, I thought it might be in context and balance things a little to share a positive look at the future.

Ray Kurzwell is a fascinating guy who’s had a knack for predicting the path of technology based on his own extensive knowledge and contribution to the fields of science and tech. He was described by John Tierney in the New York Times this way:

It may sound too good to be true, but even his critics acknowledge he’s not your ordinary sci-fi fantasist. He is a futurist with a track record and enough credibility for the National Academy of Engineering to publish his sunny forecast for solar energy. He makes his predictions using what he calls the Law of Accelerating Returns, a concept he illustrated at the festival with a history of his own inventions for the blind.

A brief stroll through Kurzweil’s wiki is well worth the time for those unfamiliar with his work.

He recently shared his thoughts on the near-future at a science conference in New York, and I think his insight provides some real reasons for hope. I now offer you a little Kurzweil-flavored food for thought, compliments of The Daily Galaxy:

·    Within 5 years the exponential progress in nanoengineering will make Solar power cost-competitive with fossil fuels

·    Within 10 years we will have a pill that allows us all to eat whatever we feel like and never gain any unwanted weight

·    In 15 years, life expectancies will start rising faster than we age

·    In about 20 years 100% of our energy will come from clean and renewable sources, and a computer will pass the Turing Test by carrying on a conversation that is indistinguishable from a human’s.

Kurzweil believes that we’re going to see this due to a rapid increase in the rate of technological advancement. As he sees it- we’re now starting to move away from the slower portion of a curve, and up into a more vertical era that will see discoveries of this kind at an accelerated rate. While I don’t believe everything that he projects or happens to believe, he is still interesting and certainly makes claims worth considering.

Now have a look at this: scientists have beefed up a Toyota Prius by adding a solar panel to the roof, resulting in a car that gets 100 miles per gallon. Here’s more from the article at Rocky Mountain News:

The result: A spunky Prius that runs the initial 60 miles mostly on battery, adding up to a fuel mileage of 100 miles per gallon…

The lithium-ion battery, which can be recharged using a standard electrical outlet at home or even at the workplace, has a price tag of $40,000. And the solar panel on the roof cost $2,500.

All told, the car adds up to almost $70,000 – but as NREL says, it’s only a unique research model at this point…

Detroit automakers are interested in NREL’s research, Markel said, adding that the goal is to bring down cost. Xcel Energy, Colorado’s biggest utility, also is keen about vehicle-to-grid technology, which would have car batteries supply excess electricity during hours of peak demand…

NREL says that light, plug-in hybrid vehicles could cut in half the demand for fuel, making it practical to use E-85 – a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline. Also, the fuel cost savings could amount to more than $500 per vehicle a year.

“I think high energy prices are here to stay, and to go even higher,” said Bryant Gimlin, energy risk manager of Gray Oil & Gas, a diesel and gasoline wholesaler. “It will not only encourage new technologies such as plug-in hybrids but make them more price effective.”

Of course, these two articles are a snow-cone compared to the iceberg of information that exists concerning alternative energy, fossil fuels, peak oil, resource wars and more. I highly recommend Fabius Maximus and The Oil Drum for those who are interested in great writing and research on these topics.

Everyone has heard the advice that says ”don’t worry about tomorrow; focus on today.” One of the reasons why that is good advice is because the future will have resources available to it that don’t even exist yet. Why not avoid a nervous look at tomorrow as seen through the murkiness of today’s limitations? That’s a very good and quite difficult thing to practice.